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The	Evolution	of	Continuous	
Experimentation	in	Software	
Product	Development
From	Data	to	a	Data-driven	Organization	at	Scale
Aleksander	Fabijan
Pavel	Dmitriev
Helena	Holmström Olsson	
Jan	Bosch
From Data	to	a Data-driven	Organization at	Scale
How	to	evolve	controlled	experimentation	to	become	data-driven	at	scale?
3
?
Key	Learnings
1. The	journey	from	a	company	with	data	to	a	data-driven	company	at	scale	is	an	evolution.
2. The	experimentation	does	not	need	to	be	complex	(at	first)!
3. Trustworthiness	enables	scalability,	and	not the	other	way	around!
4
Agenda
• Background	&	Motivation
• Research	Method
• The	Experimentation	Evolution	Model
• Crawl	stage
• Walk	stage
• Run	stage
• Fly	stage
• Conclusions	and	Q&A
5
Background	&	Motivation
• Software	companies	are	increasingly	aiming	to	become	data-driven.
• Getting	data	is	easy. Getting	data	that	you	can	trust?	Not that	much...
• What	customers	say	they	want/do	differs	from	what	they	actually	want/do.
• Online	connectivity	of	products	opens	new	opportunities to	collect	and	use	
data	that	reveals	what	the	customers	actually	want/do,
• Online	Controlled	Experiments	(e.g.	A/B	tests)	can enable	Software	Companies	
to	more	accurately	identify	what	delivers	value	to	their	customers.
6
Twist…
• Problem:	Experimentation	in	large	software	companies	is	challenging.
• Running	a	few	A/B	tests	is	simple.	Scaling	Experimentation	not	so	much!
• Challenges	include	instrumentation,	data	loss,	data	pipelines,	assumption	
violations	of	classical	statistical	methods,	finding	the	right	metrics,	etc.	
7
Problem/Solution
• Problem:	Experimentation	in	large	software	companies	is	challenging.
• Running	a	few	A/B	tests	is	simple.	Scaling	Experimentation	not	so	much!
• Challenges	include	instrumentation,	data	loss,	data	pipelines,	assumption	
violations	of	classical	statistical	methods,	finding	the	right	metrics,	etc.	
• Solution:	We	provide	step-by-step	guidance on	how	to	develop and	
evolve the	experimentation	practices	(technical,	organizational	and	
business).
8
Research	Method
• Inductive case study conducted in collaboration with the Analysis and
Experimentation team.
• Data Collection:
• The study is based on historical data points (past experiments), and
• Complemented with a series of semi-structured interviews, observations,
and meeting participations.
• Data Analysis:
• We grouped the collected data in four buckets, and performed iterative
category development to emerge with the three levels of evolution.
9
The Experimentation Evolution Model
• Our	model	provides	guidance	on	how	to	become	data-driven	at	scale	
through	the	evolution of	online	controlled	experimentation.
• We	identify	four	stages	of	experimentation	evolution:	
• We	identify	the	most	important	R&D	activities	to	focus	on	in	each	of	the	
stages	in	order	to	advance.
10
The Experimentation Evolution Model
11
The Experimentation Evolution Model
12
Crawl stage	(1x	experiments	yearly)
• Technical	focus:
• Logging of	signals	(clicks,	dwell	times,	swipes,	etc.)	should	be	implemented,
• Trustworthiness of	collected	data	should	be	considered	(data	quality),
• Analysis	of	the	experiment	results	can	be	done	manually.
• Team	Focus:
• Product	teams	gain	management	support	with	the	first	experiments.
• Business	focus:
• The	Overall	Evaluation	Criteria	consists	of	a	few	key	signals.
13
Contextual Bar Experiment
• Experiment	Goal:
• Identify	whether	the	contextual	
command	bar	improves	editing	
efficiency.	
• Value	Hypotheses:	
• (1)	increased	commonality	and	
frequency	of	edits,	
• (2)	increased	2-week	retention.	
• Outcome:
• The	initial	experiment	was	
unsuccessful	due	to	logging	
misconfiguration.
14
Walk	stage	(10x	experiments	yearly)
• Technical	focus:
• Starting	to	develop/integrate	an	experimentation	platform.
• Defining	success metrics,	debug metrics,	guardrail metrics,	and	data quality	
metrics,
• Team	focus:
• Product	team	designs	and	executes	experiments	related	to	their	features.
• Business	focus:
• The	Overall	Evaluation	Criteria	in	this	stage	evolves	from	signals to	a	structured	
set	of	metrics (guardrail,	success,	and	data-quality	metrics)
15
The “Xbox deals” experiment
16
• Experiment	Goal:
• Identify	the	impact	of	showing	
the	discount	in	the	weekly	deals	
stripe.
• Value	Hypotheses:	
• (1)	increased	engagement	with	
the	stripe
• (2)	no	decrease	in	purchases.
• Outcome:
• Treatment	C	increased both	
engagement with	the	stripe	and	
purchases	made.
Run	stage	(100x	experiments	yearly)
• Technical	focus:
• Features:	alerting,	control	of	carry	over	effects,	experiment	iteration,	etc.
• Learning	experiments:	Create	comprehensive	metrics.
• Team	Focus:
• Experimentation	expands	to	other	feature	teams	(and	other	products),
• Teams	create,	execute	and	monitor	experiments.	
• Business	focus:
• The	Overall	Evaluation	Criteria	is	tailored	using	the	learning	experiments.	
17
The “MSN.com personalization” experiment
18
• Experiment	Goal:
• Identify	the	impact	of	ML	
sorting	of	articles	in	comparison	
to	editor	curated	articles.
• Value	Hypotheses:	
• (1)	ML	curated	articles	increase	
engagement
• Outcome:
• At	first,	ML	articles	performed	
worse	than	editor	curating.	
After	a	few	iterations things	
changed!
Fly	stage	(1000+	experiments	yearly)
• Technical	focus:
• Features:	interaction	between	experiments,	autonomous	shutdown,	and	an	
accumulation	of	institutional	memory.
• Experiment	results	should	become	intuitive	(e.g.	green	for	go	/	red	for	no-go)
• Team	Focus:
• Product	Teams	experiment	with	every	minor	change	in	the	portfolio,	even	the	
smallest	bug	fixes.
• Business	focus:
• The	Overall	Evaluation	Criteria	is	stable.	
• OEC	can	become	used	to	set	the	performance	goals	for	teams	and	a	measure	of	
their	success.
19
Bing Bot Detection Experiment
20
• Experiment	Goal:
• Evaluate	the	improved	detection	of	bots.
• Value	Hypotheses:	
• (1)	No	change	to	real	user	experience,
• (2)	Fewer	resources	used	to	compute	search	results.
• Outcome:
• ~10%	saving	on	infrastructure	resources.
21
Conclusions
1. The	journey from	a	company	with	data	to	a	data-driven	company	at	
scale	is	an	evolution:
• (1)	culture,	(2)	business,	and	the	(3)	technical capabilities.
2. The	experimentation	starts	‘easy’	and	becomes	challenging!
• The	need	for	a	more	detailed	training	arises	when	many	experiments	are	being	executed	by	many	product	teams	
• The	need	for	a	more	sophisticated	platform	arises	when	many	teams	experiment	and	interfere	with	each	other
1. Trustworthiness	enables	scalability,	and	not the	other	way	around!	
22
23
Thank	you!

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The evolution of continuous experimentation in software product development: from data to a data-driven organization at scale